Nearly 8.3 million people across Somalia face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity outcomes

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Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected in three areas

13 December 2022, Mogadishu – Amid an anticipated scale-down in humanitarian assistance starting in April 2023 due to insufficient funding, approximately 8.3 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes between April and June 2023. This unprecedented level of need within Somalia is driven by the impacts of five consecutive seasons of poor rainfall, a likely sixth season of below-average rainfall from March to June 2023, and exceptionally high food prices, exacerbated by concurrent conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks. Furthermore, Famine (IPC Phase 5) is projected between April and June 2023 among agropastoral populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay region and among internally displaced people (IDP) in Baidoa town of Bay region and in Mogadishu. These three areas are already currently experiencing very high levels of acute malnutrition and mortality consistent with Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes. In addition, an increasing number of people are expected to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in multiple other areas across Somalia through mid-2023. The results of past integrated surveys conducted between May and July 2022 and subsequent IPC acute malnutrition analysis conducted in August remain valid, with the total estimated acute malnutrition burden in Somalia reaching approximately 1.8 million children, including 513,550 children who are likely to be severely malnourished, through July 2023.

In addition to the Famine (IPC Phase 5) projection in Bay region and Mogadishu, several areas in central and southern Somalia have an increased Risk of Famine between April and June 2023 if (1) the 2023 Gu season rainfall turns out to be poorer than currently predicted, leading to more crop and livestock production failures and (2) humanitarian assistance does not reach the country’s most vulnerable populations. The areas and population groups facing an increased Risk of Famine are Hawd Pastoral of Central and Hiiraan; Addun Pastoral of Northeast and Central; Coastal Deeh Pastoral of Central; Sorghum High Potential Agropastoral of Middle Shabelle; and IDP settlements in Garowe, Galkacyo, and Dollow. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of acute malnutrition and elevated mortality levels are already occurring in these areas.

Funding for humanitarian food assistance is currently sufficient to reach over 5.8 million people per month, on average, through March 2023, which is expected to mitigate the size of the acutely food-insecure population and prevent the worsening of food security and nutrition outcomes in many areas. However, levels of acute food insecurity across Somalia remain very high and will further deteriorate if food assistance is not sustained at similar levels beyond March. Between October and December 2022, an estimated 5.6 million people are still experiencing Crisis or worse (IPC Phase 3 or higher) outcomes, including 214,000 people estimated to be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5), meaning they have not received sufficient food assistance to prevent food consumption gaps. While the level of food assistance has scaled up since July and is expected to continue at high levels through March, the number of people supported with food assistance will steeply decline by around 60-80 percent between April and June 2023. If humanitarian food assistance is not scaled up and sustained, then acute food insecurity and malnutrition levels are expected to deteriorate further and faster between April and June 2023, with approximately 8.3 million people expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes, including 2.7 million people that will likely be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and at least 727,000 people that will likely be in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5).

Urgent and timely scaling up of integrated humanitarian assistance (in-kind food, cash/voucher transfers, nutrition, WASH, and healthrelated) is required through at least June 2023, and likely through late 2023, to prevent Famine (IPC Phase 5) – defined by extreme levels of food insecurity, acute malnutrition, and excess mortality, including starvation – among rural and IDP populations in Baidoa and Burhakaba districts of Bay Region, Baidoa town, and Mogadishu and to prevent the Risk of Famine in seven additional areas.

The conclusions above are based on updated IPC Acute Food Insecurity and Famine Risk Analyses conducted in November 2022 by 47 technical experts, representing 22 institutions (government, UN, NGO, and IPC GSU-the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Global Support Unit). IPC GSU provided technical support throughout the analysis process.

The cumulative impacts of consecutive seasons of poor rainfall and persistent drought are expected to lead to a worsening of the humanitarian situation (i.e., adverse impacts on livelihoods, food security, nutrition, and mortality outcomes) in Somalia through at least mid-2023. Consecutive poor-to-failed harvests, the loss of agricultural income among farmers and the continued loss of livestock among pastoralists are contributing to worsening food security and nutrition outcomes and pushing poor and vulnerable communities to the brink of starvation. In addition to poor rainfall and persistent drought, other drivers of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in Somalia include high food prices, conflict/insecurity and disease outbreaks. Both drought and conflict are also leading to further population displacement from rural areas to IDP settlements in urban towns and cities, and newly displaced people are arriving in desperate condition.

While the ongoing Deyr (October-December 2022) rains marginally replenished pasture and water resources and enabled crop cultivation in some areas, water and pasture scarcity persists and crop production prospects for the January 2023 harvest are grim. As of mid-December, cumulative Deyr season rainfall between October and December 2022 ranges from 25 to 55 percent below average across most parts of Somalia. Due to the impacts of drought on livestock health, poor and vulnerable pastoral households currently have limited access to milk and lack saleable animals. Pastoral households have also accumulated very high debt burdens, driven by the prohibitive costs of water and feed for livestock, increased reliance on purchasing food for the family on credit, and abnormal livestock migration to distant areas in search of pasture and water. Households in agropastoral and riverine livelihood zones have had several consecutive failed cereal harvests, with further disruption to cash crop and cereal production in riverine areas due to low water levels in the Juba and Shabelle Rivers. In agropastoral and riverine areas, area planted is far below normal due to the poor rains, the displacement of households away from their farms, and farmers’ reduced ability to afford seeds, irrigation, and other inputs.

Accordingly, the 2022 Deyr season cereal harvest in southern Somalia is expected to be 40-60% below the 1995-2021 average, and agricultural labor opportunities are very low for poor households who rely on this income source. Despite a slight reduction in recent months, staple food and fuel prices remain at atypically to record-high levels and out of reach for most poor rural, urban and displaced families. In most regions across Somalia, prices in October 2022 were far above the 2017-2021 five-year average, including for local cereals (32-142%), imported rice (27-85%), and diesel (43-102%). Water prices in October 2022 were 9-154% above the five-year average in most of regions of the country. Prices are expected to remain at abnormally high levels through at least mid-2023. Given the likelihood of below-average April to June 2023 Gu season rainfall, the 2023 Gu season harvest is also estimated to be 40-60% below the 1995-2022 average. This will also limit income from agricultural employment for poor households.

As a result of these compounding shocks, many rural households face widening food consumption gaps, and the erosion of their livelihoods limits their coping capacity. Social support systems are increasingly overstretched in many parts of the country. These factors have driven a surge in population displacement from rural areas to IDP settlements and towns and cities.

Nearly 8.3 million people across Somalia face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity outcomes
Source: Philippines Legacy PH