Nearly 6.6 million people in Somalia still face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity outcomes

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1.8 million children are likely to be acutely malnourished

25 April 2023, Mogadishu – During the IPC analysis conducted in January 2023, three population groups were identified as facing a Risk of Famine between April and June 2023: agropastoral communities in Burhakaba district (Bay region), internally displaced people (IDPs) in Mogadishu settlements, and IDPs in Baidoa settlements. In March 2023, follow-up integrated food security, nutrition, and mortality surveys were conducted in these three areas in order to monitor the current situation. The survey conducted in agropastoral Burhakaba also included agropastoral populations in Baidoa district given the recent history of extreme food insecurity, nutrition, and mortality outcomes in Baidoa and the resultant need for updated information in the district. In April 2023, an IPC analysis update was conducted for the surveyed areas. For the rest of the country, the results of the February 2023 IPC analysis remain valid. The April 2023 IPC analysis was conducted by a team of 42 technical experts, representing 14 institutions (government, UN, NGO, and other technical partners). The IPC Global Support Unit (IPC-GSU) provided technical support throughout the analysis process.

Overall, levels of acute food insecurity and malnutrition remain high in Somalia following the impacts of persistent drought since late 2020. However, the results of the March assessments indicate that more extreme outcomes in the surveyed areas are being mitigated by sustained humanitarian assistance, declining food prices, and access to agricultural and casual labor employment and other income-earning opportunities. A national level, approximately 6.6 million people across Somalia are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse acute food insecurity outcomes through June 2023. Levels of acute food insecurity remain very high in Somalia through at least June 2023, with 39 percent of the total population in need of urgent humanitarian assistance despite the decline in the risk of Famine over the same period. The previously estimated total burden of acute malnutrition among children under the age of five years remains valid, with approximately 1.8 million children expected to be acutely malnourished in Somalia from January to December 2023, including 477,700 who are projected to be severely malnourished.

Updated forecast for the April to June 2023 Gu season points to a relatively better seasonal rainfall than previously anticipated across most parts of Somalia. Additionally, atypically early rainfall occurred in March 2023, which has partially replenished pasture and water resources in many parts of the country and created relatively more favorable conditions for land preparation and planting for the Gu crop production season. However, floods due to heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers in March 2023 have also been reported in Gedo and other regions, killing scores of people, displacing tens of thousands and destroying property. An elevated risk of flooding will persist if heavy rains continue in Somalia and the Shabelle and Juba river catchments in southeastern Ethiopia. Overall, relatively better rainfall during the remainder of the Gu season is expected to support improvement in cropping and livestock conditions, but multiple seasons of good rainfall will be required for full recovery from the extended impacts of the protracted drought.

Rainfall has partially replenished pasture and water in many parts of the country and has created favorable conditions for Gu season land preparation and cop planting. Relatively better rainfall during the remainder of the Gu season is expected to support improvement in cropping and livestock conditions, but it will take multiple seasons of good rainfall for complete recovery from the extended impact of the protracted drought. Floods due to heavy rainfall and overflowing rivers in March 2023 have also been reported in Gedo and other regions, killing scores of people, displacing tens of thousands and destroying property. There will be increased risk of flooding if heavy rains continue in Somalia and in the upper catchments of Shabelle and Juba rivers in southeastern Ethiopia.
Sharply rising food prices since mid-2021 have been one of the key drivers of worsening acute food insecurity in most parts of Somalia.

Although food prices have been declining over the past six months, improving households’ purchasing power, food prices remain above the five-year average in most markets (e.g. 19% for white maize in Mogadishu and 22% for red sorghum in Baidoa). As a result, most poor households still facing constrained access to food.
The cumulative impacts of protracted drought have led to loss of life and severe damage to livelihoods. Consecutive poor-to-failed harvests among farmers and declining livestock holdings among pastoralists have contributed to poor food security and nutrition outcomes due to losses of main food and income sources. In addition to poor rainfall and persistent drought, other drivers of acute food insecurity and malnutrition in Somalia include high food prices, conflict/insecurity, and disease outbreaks. As a result of these compounding shocks, many rural households have experienced erosion of their livelihoods and coping capacities. Social support systems remain overstretched. Millions of households are facing widening food consumption gaps. These factors continue to drive population displacement from rural areas to IDP settlements.

Following a deterioration of the food security and nutrition situation across Somalia since early 2022, the provision of humanitarian food and non-food assistance (including nutrition, WASH, and health-related interventions) was scaled up in mid-2022. Humanitarian food assistance (HFA) – mainly in the form of cash transfers – reached an average of 4.4 million people per month between January and March 2023, with planned assistance expected to continue at generally comparable levels through June 2023. Humanitarian assistance under the Nutrition Cluster has also been scaled up. In November 2022, more than 2.3 million children were vaccinated against measles and approximately 2 million children were reached with Vitamin A and deworming tablets. In January 2023, nearly 1 million children were vaccinated against cholera.

Sustained provision of scaled-up food and non-food assistance has prevented the worsening of food security and nutrition outcomes in many areas. However, assistance provision continues to fall short of overall requirements, with millions of Somalis still facing food consumption gaps and acute malnutrition levels remain atypically high.

Nearly 6.6 million people in Somalia still face Crisis or worse acute food insecurity outcomes
Source: Philippines Legacy PH